SunSirs: Supply and Demand Side is Weak, PTA Price Deposits the Risk of Falling

　　Last week (December 20-24), the domestic PTA market first fell and then rose. As of December 24, the average market price in East China was 4768 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.56% and a year-on-year increase of 31.35%.

　　Last week, PTA devices restarted more and the supply gradually increased. Among them, the 6 million tons of Yisheng Dalian installations were operated at full capacity last week after a short shutdown last week, and Baihong’s 2.5 million terminal installations were restarted at the beginning of the week. As of December 23, the industry operating rate has increased to around 75%.The crude oil stage bottomed out and rebounded, increasing support for PTA costs. The cold weather makes it difficult to alleviate the European energy crisis in the short term. In addition, during the Christmas holidays, the increase in travel in Europe and the United States increases the demand for crude oil, and the US crude oil inventories are expected to fall. At the same time, the influence of the mutant strain Omicron weakened, driving the trend of stronger crude oil prices.

　　The downstream polyester plant’s operating load is still not high, the market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, and production and sales are flat. The starting load of terminal looms is around 60%, which is a low level in the same period. The bottom-up dull state of the demand side inhibited PTA demand, and the spot buying atmosphere declined.

　　The current crude oil fundamentals are relatively strong in the short-term, and PTA prices will also be boosted. However, supply and demand are weak, some mainstream factories have restart plans, and PTA accumulates inventory. Some downstream weaving factories have successively formulated plans for suspension of work during the Spring Festival, and demand performance is average. It is expected that PTA prices may fall next week.