SunSirs: Supported by Production Cuts, Rapeseed Oil Prices in the Chinese Market Hit a Record High in 2021
On December 28, 2021, the average domestic rapeseed oil price was 12,846 yuan/ton, and on December 28, 2020, the domestic rapeseed oil average price was 10,415 yuan/ton, and on December 28, 2019, the domestic rapeseed oil average price was 8087. Yuan/ton, the average domestic rapeseed oil price on December 28, 2018 was 6,170 yuan/ton, and the average domestic rapeseed oil price on December 28, 2017 was 6,538 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed oil hit a record high in 2021. Canadian rapeseed is a major rapeseed producer and exporter in the world. Canadian rapeseed has experienced severe drought during the critical growth period. The production of rapeseed has declined, the price of added seeds has remained high, and the high cost of imported rapeseed has given rise to strong prices for rapeseed. Strong support.The average domestic rapeseed oil market price in January was 10,537 yuan/ton, and the average domestic rapeseed oil market price was 12,826 yuan/ton on December 29, an increase of 21.72%.
The price of rapeseed oil fluctuated from January to March. The average domestic rapeseed oil market price in January was 10,537 yuan/ton, and the average domestic rapeseed oil market price was 10,877 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 3.23%.
Affected by the domestic epidemic at the beginning of the year, logistics was restricted, and the prices of vegetable oil, soybean oil, and palm oil were high, and vegetable oil consumption was limited. After the holiday, the price of vegetable oil rose sharply, boosted by the external market, the spot price of oil rose significantly. In March, the decline in international crude oil and the weakening of U.S. soybeans led to a decline in domestic oil and fat spot prices. As of the week of March 19, vegetable oil stocks fell to 203,000 tons, a decrease of 8%, and vegetable oil stocks were at a low level, supporting vegetable oil prices.The price of rapeseed oil fluctuated from April to June. The average domestic rapeseed oil market price in April and January was 11,075 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the average domestic rapeseed oil market price was 10,627 yuan/ton, down 4.04%.
In April, Sinograin held an auction of rape oil and soybean oil, and the policy control measures for the oil and fat market were implemented, and the pressure for oil prices to rebound increased. During the May Day holiday, driven by the external horse palm oil, US soybean and US soybean oil, the domestic oil market was boosted, and the spot price of rape oil was raised after the holiday. The weakening of international fats and oils and the rebound of domestic fats and oils stocks have suppressed vegetable oil prices. The hot and dry weather in Canada’s production areas has caused damage to the growth of rapeseed. The production of rapeseed has fallen, and the price of added seeds has soared again, which has helped to increase the price of rapeseed oil. The weather is hot, the oil consumption is in the off-season, and the downstream purchases are average.
In the second half of the year, rapeseed oil showed a sharp rise, with prices hitting new highs in recent years. The average domestic rapeseed oil market price in July and January was 10,707 yuan/ton, and the average domestic rapeseed oil market price was 12,826 yuan/ton on December 29, an increase of 19.79%.
Around mid-August, the MPOB report was bullish, the spot price of domestic oils and fats rose with the plate, and the price of rapeseed oil rose. The policy of “dual energy consumption control”, power curtailment measures in many places, and oil plant shutdowns for maintenance; double-section stocking to boost the market for vegetable oil. Coupled with the impact of the global energy crisis, US crude oil futures hit a seven-year high. The supply of rapeseed in Canada and Europe is at the lowest level in history, and the high cost of imported rapeseed has helped the price of rapeseed continue to rise. During the November holiday, the external market was boosted, and the spot oil futures after the holiday made up a substantial increase. Against the background of reduced rapeseed production in Canada, rapeseed oil continued to rise sharply.
From November to December, the spot price of rapeseed oil mainly operated at a high level, the pace of increase stagnated, and the high level returned. USDA’s November monthly supply and demand report is positive for the domestic oil and fat market, and the spot rapeseed oil rose along with the market. In December, Statistics Canada (Statscan) released a report, lowering the country’s rapeseed production forecast to the lowest level in 14 years. Statistics Canada predicts that the rapeseed production in 2021/22 will be 12.6 million tons, slightly lower than in September. Estimated 12.8 million tons.
In 2020, vegetable oil stocks will be low, and the price will exceed 10,000 yuan. In 2021, rapeseed oil will be supported by cost factors, and the price will reach a new high. It is expected that rapeseed oil may continue to operate at high prices.