45 billion investment expansion! Photovoltaic glass prices are expected to rebound slightly in the second half of the year

As we all know, driven by tight supply and demand, the price of photovoltaic glass will rise rapidly in the second half of 2020, and the price increase will be close to 80% in less than half a year.

Since March 2021, the price of photovoltaic glass has fallen to a historical low. However, according to CPIA estimates, this year’s new installed capacity is about 55GW, and only less than 10GW was completed in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand pattern improves, and the price of photovoltaic glass is expected to rebound slightly.

In 2021 photovoltaic glass new expansion project investment nearly 45 billion

According to incomplete statistics in the industry, since 2021, photovoltaic glass companies have announced at least 12 major photovoltaic glass expansion projects, with a total investment of nearly 45 billion yuan. The investment in the first two projects both exceeded 10 billion yuan, belonging to Triumph Group and Rainbow New Energy. However, it should be noted that the release time of photovoltaic glass production capacity is relatively long, and the general construction period is 1.5-2 years.

Therefore, the expansion projects this year are not expected to be fully released until 2023. Therefore, the situation of capacity supply will not be effectively alleviated in the short term.

So, the price of photovoltaic glass is expected to rebound slightly in the second half of 2021. However, in the long run, the industry’s new capacity will be relatively large in 2022-2023, and the expansion projects this year will be released in 2023, so it is expected that the price of photovoltaic glass may continue to fall in 2022-2023.

Flat signed with Longi, JA and Dongfang Risheng to sign 25.2 billion orders

In early August, Flat announced that the company and JA Solar had signed a “Strategic Cooperation Agreement” on the sales of photovoltaic glass. The agreement stipulates that JA Solar and its designated holding company are expected to Flat and its designated wholly-owned holding company purchase approximately 230 million square meters of rolled glass for photovoltaic modules.

At the same time, since the beginning of this year, Flat has successively signed agreements with Risen Energy and Longi to sell 34GW (approximately 234 million square meters) of rolled photovoltaic glass for photovoltaic modules and 46GW of photovoltaic glass for photovoltaic modules. The orders were 8.909 billion yuan, 11.7 billion yuan.

In recent years, locking in production has become an old topic in the photovoltaic industry. Taking Longi as an example, since 2020, it has signed a total of 563,900 tons of polysilicon long-term orders with many silicon material companies, and signed photovoltaic glass long-term contracts with five companies including Jinjing Technology, Flat, Deli, CSG A, and Xinyi Solar. Orders directly indicate that supply chain management has become an important issue in the industry.

The production line planning of some photovoltaic glass manufacturers is expected to be put into production before 2023

From the perspective of the production capacity of photovoltaic glass over the years, the production capacity of Xinyiguang and Flatt has always been in the forefront. This year, Xinyi Solar, Flat, Luoyang Glass, and Almaden have all expanded their production capacity and are expected to start production before 2023.

The actual production capacity of Xinyi Solar and Flat is 10,800 tons/day and 9,200 tons/day, respectively. Flat’s two 1,000t/d production lines in Fengyang, Anhui will be put into operation in the second half of 2021. China’s planned and under-construction production capacity totals 8,400t/d, and the total production capacity in 2021 and 2022 will be 12200t/d and 18200t/d, respectively.

According to CPIA forecasts, the double-glass penetration rate will increase from 30% in 2020 to 60% in 2025; the thickness of 2.5mm/2.0mm is expected to be adjusted from 80%/20% in 2019 to 0%/ 100%. Double glass is the general trend. 2.0 mm is the ultimate choice widely expected in the industry. It is currently gradually transitioning from 3.2 to 2.5, and then to 2.0mm.

At the same time, according to the calculations of China Securities, according to the yield rate of photovoltaic glass 85%, the yield rate of deep processing 90% and the conversion efficiency of 19.8%, if a 1000t/d photovoltaic glass production line produces a thickness of 3.2mm For single glass, the corresponding annual photovoltaic installed capacity is 6.9GW. If double glass with a thickness of 2.0mm is produced, the installed capacity is 5.5GW.

Therefore, by 2025, if all the ultra-white float glass is converted from photovoltaic glass to architectural and automotive glass, the production capacity of ultra-white rolled glass will reach 111571t/d, which can support the global annual photovoltaic installation of 657GW.

Summary

The demand for photovoltaic glass is directly affected by the installed photovoltaic capacity, and glass is also one of the necessary raw materials for photovoltaic modules. In the case of stubborn supply and demand, the demand for glass benefits from dual factors (photovoltaic installation and double-glass module penetration), and the industry continues to improve.