The tight soda ash supply pattern remains unchanged, and the glass is expected to remain volatile in the short term

For soda ash, the main soda ash contract fluctuated and fell yesterday, and the recent month contract remained strong. The 2201 soda ash contract closed at 2689 yuan/ton, 1.07% lower than the closing price of the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the soda ash spot market is steady and firm, and some companies have raised their quotations. Manufacturers have a good mentality and are willing to be more expensive. On the supply side, according to the data monitoring of Longzhong Information, the output of soda ash in August 2021 was 2,399,800 tons, the overall operating rate of soda ash enterprises was 76.18%, and the operating rate of in-production enterprises was 80.26%; the inventory of soda ash at the beginning of the month was 330,200 tons, and the inventory at the end of the month increased by 7,300 tons, an increase. 2.21%. At present, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises has rebounded slightly, but the overall situation is still not high, and the supply remains tight. The overhaul of some enterprises is completed, and the operating rate is expected to pick up. In terms of demand, in the face of high prices, downstream companies still focus on on-demand procurement, while light soda ash downstream companies have a certain resistance to high prices and are less proactive in purchasing, while heavy soda ash downstream companies focus on on-demand procurement. However, considering the resumption of float glass production and photovoltaic glass production capacity, the demand for heavy alkali will continue to improve. To sum up: the current tight supply pattern in the soda ash market has not changed, and the price is expected to remain high. Follow-up needs to pay attention to changes in downstream demand.

For glass, the main glass contract opened higher and lowered yesterday. The 2201 glass contract closed at 2601 yuan/ton, a 2.8% drop from the closing price of the previous trading day. The production and sales of glass in various regions are clearly differentiated. The overall shipments in the Shahe area of ​​North China are average, and manufacturers focus on stable prices, but market confidence is good, and some manufacturers raise prices; the trading atmosphere in East China and Central China is weak, and transactions are slowing down; the overall shipments in South China are acceptable, and the quotes Stable and strong; glass prices in the southwest region rose slightly. The price of soda ash in the upstream continues to rise, but early glass companies generally have higher profits and are more tolerant of rising raw material prices. In addition, with long-term high profits, glass manufacturers have maintained less maintenance, maintained a high operating rate, and the overall supply is relatively stable. In general, the current production and sales in different regions are slightly different. Glass manufacturers are basically concerned about stabilizing prices, and downstream purchases are cautious, and short-term expectations are still unstable. In the medium and long term, glass is expected to be consumed during peak seasons, and after consumption has rebounded, it can do more on dips.