SunSirs: COVID-19 is Driving Demand, Price of Forsythia may Break the Line of 100 in China

　　1. Price trend

　　The price of Forsythia suspensa continued to rise last week. At present, the price of Forsythia suspensa in Henan Province is around 90-95 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.80% compared to the end of last month.

　　Bozhou market: Forsythia, there are still many merchants who pay attention to it, and the market is steadily rising due to the continued increase in the cost of new products in the place of origin. At present, the asking price of boiled products in Bozhou market is as high as 90-95 yuan. It is around 80 yuan, but the purchase and sales are still not as good as the place of origin.

　　Anguo market: Forsythia, driven by the demand of the epidemic, the recent supply of goods has been selling smoothly, and the attention of merchants has increased, and the market has risen. The current market price of green and boiled boiled goods is around 95 yuan. It is expected that the market outlook is still difficult to calm.

　　Song County, Henan: Forsythia is currently producing new products, but the source output is not large. The current purchase price of fresh products is 30-31 yuan/kg. The new dry products have not yet been processed and many merchants have recently asked for goods. The supply of goods moves smoothly and the price rises. The price of 90% dry boiled goods is about 90 yuan.

　　2. Analysis of influencing factors

　　A new round of epidemic drives demand

　　The new crown epidemic has not yet been eliminated, and new mutant viruses are raging around the world. Recently, cases of delta strains have also appeared in many provinces in my country, detonating a new round of epidemics.

　　Delta is a mutant strain of the new coronavirus. It was first discovered in India in October 2020. In May 2021, the WHO named the first variant of the new coronavirus B.1.617.2 in India as the “Delta” variant.

　　There is no significant difference between the clinical manifestations of the “Delta” virus and the clinical symptoms caused by previous strains. They are still some familiar infections in the past, such as fever, dry cough, headache, dry throat, fever, excessive phlegm, fatigue, etc. symptom. Traditional Chinese medicine treatment is also a kind of medicine for clearing away heat, detoxifying and resolving phlegm.

　　Forsythia suspensa itself has a good detoxification, carbuncle dispelling and wind-relief effect. It has played an important role in multiple epidemics and belongs to epidemic prescription drugs. The recent epidemic has made prices firmer. Perhaps driven by the strong increase in market demand, prices have reached a high price of one hundred yuan ahead of schedule.

　　The cost of new goods continues to rise

　　Now that Shaanxi is coming to an end, Henan is entering the middle and late period, and Shanxi is entering the middle period. The price of fresh forsythia has steadily risen from the initial purchase price of 16 yuan/kg to the current 30 yuan/kg, and the current price of processed dried products has reached around 90 yuan.

　　In mid-to-late June, Shaanxi entered the new production phase ahead of schedule. Affected by the new pharmacopoeia, the production of Shaanxi was delayed by more than ten days compared with previous years. The scale was opened at 17 yuan/kg, and 8-20 kg was picked a day, but later it was picked day by day. Less, so the price is rising day by day. The hawkers also want to be cheap, but they don’t count. Because pharmaceutical farmers have to determine the price of fresh goods based on their daily picking volume and the daily labor price. As they gradually decrease every day, the price will rise.

　　At the end of July, the origin of fresh goods has risen to about 30, and the upward momentum is full. The reason is that there are few goods. Vendors are usually proud of receiving more goods together, and they compare with each other, while buyers are in an endless stream. Many customers do not come and ship the goods after the car is loaded and the payment is made. Nowadays, the processing cost is as high as about 90, but the processing households are full of confidence, and the value for the future market is too high.

　　Forsythia reduced production has become a settlement

　　The main production areas of Forsythia can be divided into four areas: Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, and Shaanxi. Shanxi’s output accounts for more than 60% of the national output, and the production areas are relatively concentrated. The flowering period of Forsythia is in April, and the new production is in July. If the weather is “fallen cold” during the flowering period, it is easy to cause a decrease in production.

　　On March 19, forsythia flower blooming season, various producing areas have had heavy snowfall and the temperature dropped sharply. At this time, it is the sensitive period of flower blooming, which has a greater impact.

　　On March 26th, Henan Lushi held a forsythia event. At that time, the rain continued for several days. The Henan representative summed up the 60% reduction in Henan’s production based on his own local situation, and the Shanxi representative concluded that the disaster was unclear. The Shaanxi representative concluded that Shaanxi had cut production by 40%. For a week of sand and dust weather, Shanxi was in the blooming season, and the dust falling on the buds seriously affected pollination.

　　In April, the country’s temperature dropped on a large scale, and the three major producing areas experienced several frost and ice conditions, which made Qingqiao even worse.

　　In May, the Golden Tourism Festival came. According to the survey, it was found that most of the fruits were yellow. Coupled with a few days of high temperature, the phenomenon of shedding was serious.

　　Qingqiao experienced three major disasters this year, and the reduction in production has become a settlement.

　　There is not much remaining stock of Forsythia at present

　　Forsythia has experienced three consecutive years of production cuts and demand driven by the new crown epidemic, and the current inventory is in a weak state.

　　Forsythia has a large inventory in the past few years, but in recent years, affected by the cold spring, the annual supply output cannot meet the demand of the year. This needs to be consumed from the previous inventory, resulting in the inventory reduction year by year.

　　In 2020, the new crown epidemic broke out suddenly. In this battle, traditional Chinese medicine played an important role. Forsythia has the effects of clearing heat and detoxifying, dispelling knots and reducing swelling, leading to an increase in its demand. This accidental event carried out a large amount of inventory. Consumption.

　　As of now, according to rough statistics, the stock of Forsythia should be less than 1,000 tons.

　　3. Market Forecast

　　Generally speaking, driven by the demand of the epidemic, the supply of goods has been selling smoothly recently, the attention of merchants has increased, and the market has risen. In the short term, the price of Forsythia may continue to maintain high prices, and the market outlook is still difficult to calm.