SunSirs: Cost is Good, Polyester Market still can be Expected
In July, the domestic polyester filament market maintained a volatile and strong trend. At present, mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are quoting polyester POY (150D/48F) at 7750-8050 yuan/ton, and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9300-9600. Yuan/ton, the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 7900-8200 Yuan/ton.
At present, the overall polyester industry starts at around 87%. In terms of inventory, the overall polyester market inventory is concentrated in 15-25 days. Specifically, POY stocks are around 12-21 days, FDY stocks are around 15-17 days, and DTY stocks are around 18-27 days.
On July 29, raw material PTA futures broke the 5,500 yuan mark, setting a new high since late July 2019. The spot market rose in July, with an average market price of 5506 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.82% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 54.90%. The shortage of supply is a key factor affecting the current PTA market trend. Since March, the warehouse has continued to go to the warehouse, and there is not much left in the PTA delivery warehouse in Zhejiang. In addition, there were more equipment overhauls in July, and the industry operating rate dropped to around 74%. At the same time, the “fireworks” typhoon weather in East China in the second half of the month affected its transportation, which intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in some areas in the short term.
It is understood that the downstream grey fabric weaving inventory is currently about 38.6 days. The market is optimistic about the second half of the year. The autumn and winter fabrics are still optimistic. Orders for fabrics such as pongee, polyester taffeta, nylon fabric, bile fabric and four-way stretch Good delivery, weaving companies are hoarding and stocking, and the overall operating load rate has been at a relatively high level in recent years. The current comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 79%.
From the perspective of the raw material market, although the impact of the typhoon has subsided, PTA logistics has improved, and the shortage of goods has temporarily eased, it is still in a state of destocking, and the short-term supply side is relatively strong. At the same time, international crude oil has gradually strengthened under the influence of summer travel peaks, which has a positive boost to the cost of polyester filaments. In addition, with the successive placing of orders for autumn and winter fabrics at the textile terminal, the demand side will also increase significantly. Taken together, the polyester filament market was improving in August, and the price is still expected.