SunSirs: Supply and Demand Support is Strong, Short-Term PTA Prices Continue to Rise

　　On July 27, the average PTA spot market price was 5384 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% from the previous day. The main futures contract PTA2109 rose slightly by 0.30% to close at 5360 yuan.

　　The shortage of supply is a key factor affecting the current PTA market trend. It is understood that the PTA production capacity in Zhejiang is 18.35 million tons, while the polyester production capacity in the region is 29 million tons. Therefore, there is a large gap between supply and demand in the Zhejiang region. With the maintenance of Reignwood Petrochemical and other equipment in Zhejiang area, the warehouse has continued to go to the warehouse since March, and there is not much cargo left in the PTA delivery warehouse in Zhejiang area. Recently, a set of 2 million tons of PTA device in East China was shut down on July 24 and restarted on July 26. Another set of 700,000 tons of PTA plant will be shut down on the evening of July 22 and will be scheduled for delivery on July 26. Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons PTA plant plans to shut down recently, and the specific time is to be determined. The overall industry operating rate has dropped slightly and is currently around 80%. The superimposed “fireworks” typhoon weather in East China has affected its transportation, which intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in some areas in the short term.

　　Downstream market, today the domestic polyester filament market is stable but weak, and some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have preferential sales. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) is quoted at 7750-8000 yuan/ton. In terms of production and sales, the polyester yarn trading atmosphere in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is fierce. The production and sales of mainstream promotional factories are mostly around 200%-300%, and some are as high as 500%. The production and sales of some non-promotion factories are low at around 60%-80%. In terms of inventory, the overall polyester market inventory is concentrated in 15-25 days, of which POY inventory is 12-21 days, FDY inventory is around 15-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 18-27 days. In the terminal textile market, due to the improvement of downstream autumn and winter fabrics, advance stocking, and better expectations in the second half of the year, the weaving end has already begun to bottom out. The current operating load rate is at a relatively high level in recent years. The current looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are comprehensively started. The rate is 79.63%.

　　Currently affected by the typhoon, heavy rain falls in many places in Zhejiang, and the downstream textile terminal production activities are limited. However, the downstream polyester maintains a high operating load of about 90%, and the demand for PTA is relatively stable. In addition, in July, there were still too many PTA overhauls, and the market still has tight supply expectations for August. Overall, short-term PTA supply and demand support is relatively strong, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward.