Influenced by the Pandemic in Myanmar, Shanghai Tin Recall from High

Internal and external trends: LME tin rebounded slightly today. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month price of LME tin was $31,670/ton, up 0.32% daily. Shanghai Tin’s main 2108 contract has been pulled back at a high level, with a daily maximum of 218,600 yuan/ton, a minimum of 213,950 yuan/ton, and closing at 216,340 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume was 88,683 hands, a daily increase of 6,873 hands; holdings 40,472 Hands, 5774 hands per day. The basis difference is 1160 yuan/ton; the monthly price difference of Shanghai Tin 2108-2109 is 2960 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI actually announced 60.1, which is expected to be 63.5, and the previous value is 64. The US June ISM non-manufacturing employment index actually announced 49.3, the previous value was 55.3. (2) On July 6, 3,602 new cases of new coronary pneumonia were newly confirmed in Myanmar, a record high. Among them, Northern Shan State on the border of China and Myanmar became the hardest hit area.

Spot analysis: On July 6, spot 1# tin was quoted at RMB 216,500-218,500/ton, with an average price of RMB 217,500/ton, and a daily drop of RMB 3,000/ton. The Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that the domestic spot tin price fell today, and the market supply was abundant. The downstream demanded purchases mainly on bargain prices. Traders were less motivated to receive the goods, and the overall transaction volume was limited.

Warehouse Receipt Inventory: Today’s Shanghai tin warehouse receipts totaled 3,129 tons, an increase of 20 tons per day; LME tin inventory was 1,895 tons, a daily decrease of 130 tons.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Tin’s main 2108 contract are 26359, -3028, short positions 25111, -2545, and net positions +1248, -483. Long and short are reduced, and net long is reduced.

Market research and judgment: The US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. Among them, the employment sub-index fell to a contraction range, triggering market risk aversion, and the US dollar index rebounded sharply; however, there is still room for waiting for the Fed to reduce asset purchases or raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the market Mood improved. The upstream Myanmar tin ore shipments are at a relatively low level, coupled with the recent rapid rebound of the Myanmar epidemic, the supply of tin ore imports is tight or aggravated again. Moreover, due to the long-term low Shanghai-London ratio, the net export of refined tin remained high, the inventory dropped to a low level, and the price of tin remained firm. Technically, Shanghai Tin’s main force 2108 contract position reduction, pay attention to the 5-day moving average support. Operationally, it is recommended to do more at 216000 every callback and stop loss at 214500.