Shanghai Aluminum Fluctuates at a High Level, Overall Transaction is Weak
Internal and external trends: Today, the LME aluminum fluctuates strongly. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME aluminum price was $2,562/ton, up 0.18% from the previous trading day. Shanghai Aluminum’s main 2108 contract fluctuated at a high level, with the highest being 19285 yuan/ton, the lowest being 19,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 19130 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day; positions held were 236,540 contracts, and a daily decrease of 705 contracts. Basis -10 yuan/ton; Shanghai Aluminum 2108-2109 month price difference 35 yuan/ton.
Market focus: (1) My non-ferrous network survey: In June 2021, China’s 6063 aluminum rod output was 1.38 million tons, an increase of 0.36% month-on-month and an increase of 8.83% year-on-year; the operating capacity in June 2021 was 16.435 million tons, an increase of 0.83% month-on-month, an increase of 7.95% year-on-year; in June 2021, the production capacity will be 30.66 million tons. In June 2021, the national aluminum rod output was 285,300 tons, up 1.82% month-on-month and down 0.59% year-on-year; in June 2021, the completed production capacity was 6.54 million tons, the operating capacity was 3.42 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.8%, an increase of 3 month-on-month. %, down 6% year-on-year.
Spot analysis: Spot A00 aluminum reported 19100-19140 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19120 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that holders are actively shipping, the downstream is cautiously waiting and watching, trading is low, and the overall transaction activity is weak.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 69,069 tons, a daily reduction of 100 tons; LME inventory was 1538,758 tons, a daily reduction of 13,525 tons.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Aluminum’s main 2108 contract held 144,553 hands, a daily decrease of 149 hands, a short position of 140,137 hands, a daily decrease of 243 hands, a net long position of 4416 hands, and a daily decrease of 471 hands. Long short and net long are reduced.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai Aluminum’s 2018 contract fluctuated at a high level. The recent rise in the US dollar has been temporarily suspended. The details of the US employment report last week alleviated market concerns about the timing of US interest rate hikes. This week, we still need to continue to pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday, which may contain more details about the thinking of policymakers. Yesterday, the State Reserve’s aluminum dumping reserve public bidding, and the market actively participated, the current price of 18074 yuan/ton for dumping reserve was collected at the highest price by large Henan investors, and the impact of reserve dumping was continued in the short term. Recently, the market has once again reported that aluminum plants that had stopped production for a long time have begun to resume production, and supply in Yunnan has also recovered, and operating capacity is expected to increase marginally. However, the current Shanghai aluminum inventory decline and the Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to fall and go low, providing support for aluminum prices to rise. Generally speaking, the recent resilience of the aluminum market’s consumption still exists, and it is basically facing strong price support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator DIFF and DEA of the AL2018 contract form a cross with a small green column. Operationally, the 18800-19500 range sells high and buys low, with a stop loss of 150 points.