SunSirs: Declining Costs and Weak Demand, Polyester Filament Prices will Continue to Fall

　　On January 4, the quotations of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were lowered by 300-500 yuan/ton. Polyester POY (150D/48F) was quoted at 7850-8200 yuan/ton, and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was quoted at 9900-10310 yuan/ton. , Polyester FDY (150D/96F) is quoted at 8300-8400 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, the overall polyester market inventory is concentrated in 16-26 days, of which POY inventory is 12-19 days, FDY inventory is around 15-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 17-25 days.On November 3, international oil prices plummeted. The settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at US$80.86/barrel, a decrease of US$3.05 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at US$81.99/barrel, a decrease of US$2.73. 3.2%. The Fed’s monetary policy has tightened, reducing the scale of bond purchases. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week.The domestic PTA market continued to decline. The average spot market price was 4961 yuan/ton, down 1.90% from the previous day. The main PTA futures 2201 closed at 5002 and settled at 5020, down 150, or 2.91%. In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan Energy invested 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons installations were overhauled one after another, and the industry’s starting load was around 82. Currently, PTA stocks are sufficient, and there are not many equipment overhauls before the end of the year.In the downstream market, the energy consumption dual control policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been relaxed. Starting from the end of October, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased significantly to over 65%. The start of construction gradually resumed, and the factory’s enthusiasm for accepting orders after December rebounded. However, due to the influence of terminal demand, it is still difficult for the operating rate to return to the previous high. At the same time, due to the current downward trend in the raw material market, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories has increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high.The fall in temperature drives the rigid demand for home textiles and apparel fabrics in winter, but the orders gradually come to an end with the autumn and winter. Superimposed crude oil fell sharply, PTA was accumulated, and the cost-end support began to weaken. The demand-side terminal enterprises have a growing wait-and-see atmosphere, with a cautious purchasing mentality and purchasing on demand. In the short term, the price of polyester filament yarn will continue to fall under the sluggish demand for lower costs.