SunSirs: Supply and Demand Are Weak, the Acetone Market Enters a Stalemate
Price trend
After a long period of downturn in July, the acetone market has improved a lot in August. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, taking the acetone market offer in East China as an example, the offer on August 1 was at 5,150 RMB/ton, and the offer on August 9 was at 5,750 RMB/ton. As of August 11, the offer was at 5,600-5,650 RMB/ton, the maximum amplitude in August was 11.65%, and so far the overall increase is 8.74%. Beginning this week, the acetone market fell again weakly, and the market entered a stalemate. At present, the pressure of holders is increasing, but it is expected that the supply of imported goods will be limited in the later period, and there is not much room for substantial profit. The sentiment of downstream terminals in the market is not good and just need to follow up.
Analysis review
From the upstream raw material market, domestic pure benzene is driven by the upward trend of international crude oil and styrene products, and the overall purchase of pure benzene by downstream is relatively good. The current negotiation price in East China is at 7,500 RMB/ton. Propylene has also shown a slight upward trend recently, and the overall negotiation is at 7,700 RMB/ton. Recently, the propylene market has shown a strong operating trend.
From the downstream market, the East China MIBK market has an upward focus, and the negotiation is above 15,200 RMB/ton. At present, companies mainly deliver pre-orders, and the current inventory is low, and the upward sentiment of holders remains unabated, and the short-term upward trend continues. The bisphenol A market continues to run at a high level, and most of the factories do not offer bids and mainly fulfill contract orders. The current market supply is still tight, and a factory in East China bids up 500 RMB/ton again, which has strong support for the bisphenol A market. The current reference offer for the bisphenol A market is above 27,000 RMB/ton, and continued attention should be paid to market transactions.
From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of domestic phenol and ketone companies has been maintaining a steady trend. With the exception of Jilin Petrochemical which starts at 70%, and CNOOC and Shell and Yangzhou Shiyou are operating at a low level, other companies have operating rates at 95%, and most companies have been operating at full capacity. In terms of ports, the acetone in transit this month is expected to be about 13,000 tons, and it has reached 22,000 tons so far.
Market outlook
From SunSirs’point of view, the overall profitability of downstream products of acetone is relatively large, and the purchasing sentiment of the supply chain downwards is good, and it is expected to continue to rise due to cost pressures. The terminal benefit has formed a strong support for the acetone market. Although the current acetone market is weak and the market has entered a stalemate, SunSirs expects the acetone market to continue to rise next week.