SunSirs: Local Refining Naphtha Prices Fell slightly Last Week (Juy 12-18)
As of July 18, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6,920.00 RMB/ ton, down 0.53% compared with 6,956.60 RMB/ ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6,800-7,000 RMB/ ton.
As of July 18, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha in China was 6,795.00 RMB/ ton, down 0.84% compared with 6,852.50 RMB/ ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of refined straight-run naphtha was about 6,700-6,800 RMB/ ton.
On July 18, the naphtha commodity index was 85.41, unchanged from the previous day, down 16.77% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 102.20% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016(Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
The price of naphtha refining in the last week fell slightly, and the market of local refining was weak, and the downstream was just purchasing by needs.
Upstream: International crude oil prices fluctuated and declined, the Fed’s stance was fluctuating under high inflation, the U.S. CPI surged unexpectedly in June, and the market was generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy brought about by high inflation pressure; the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) policies After landing, the agreement to increase production is reached, the market expects that the supply will increase; the superimposed virus mutation and the speed of spread will accelerate, and under the severe trend of multi-country epidemics, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene fell last week, which was 5,860 RMB/ ton on July 11 and 5,780 RMB/ ton on July 18, down 80 RMB/ ton or 1.37% compared with the previous week. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On July 11, the price of mixed xylene was 6,000 RMB/ ton, and on July 18, the price was 5,920 RMB/ ton, down 80 RMB/ ton or 1.33% compared with the previous week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable last week, which was about 7,100 RMB/ ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 28th week of 2021 (7.12-7.16), there were 6 commodities in the energy sector that have increased month-on-month in the 28th week of 2021 (7.12-7.16). The top 3 commodities were LNG (3.75%) and thermal coal (2.29%), LPG (1.52%). A total of 9 commodities fell month-on-month, and 1 commodity fell more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were coke (-5.26%) and WTI crude oil (-3.90%) ), Brent crude oil (-2.75%). The average increase and decrease last week was -0.49%.
SunSirs energy analysts believe that the recent international crude oil price volatility downward, naphtha market cost support is limited, coupled with the slow release of terminal and aromatics demand, resulting in poor market activity, downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see sentiment, and China naphtha refining is expected to be weak in the near future.