Glass soda ash doubles high, facing continuous callback pressure
In July, the main glass futures contract completed the month swap ahead of schedule. Before and after the month change, the January contract rose sharply and hit the 3,100 yuan mark, but the two shocks were unsuccessful. In the last week of July, the disk adjusted back to 2,800 yuan, then rebounded to nearly 100 yuan, and closed at 2,894 yuan at the end of the month. The monthly price of the January contract rose 8.19%. The driving factor of the glass futures market in the first half of the year was the transfer of long positions in an optimistic atmosphere, and the market tended to be cautious in the second half of the year.
In July, domestic float glass prices showed an upward trend. At the end of the month, affected by the weather and traffic conditions in the local and surrounding areas, spot prices in North China declined, while spot prices in Central China maintained an upward trend throughout the month. Spot prices were driven by low inventory support from manufacturers and the market’s expectations of strong demand in the third quarter.
In August, uncertain factors increased; some areas were affected by public health incidents and demand declined in stages. The intensity and pace of demand for real estate companies under financial pressure remains to be seen. It is recommended to continue to hold the selling insurance position above 3000 yuan in the 01 contract. Based on the characteristics of demand in the off-season, it is recommended that 9-1 continue to hold positive sets in arbitrage.
The soda ash futures market remained strong and volatile in July, and the monthly changes were completed near the end of the month. The main contract of soda ash 01 rose by 9.37% in a single month to close at 2626 yuan.
The spot trend in July rose steadily, and the benchmark price of heavy alkali was sent to around 2300 yuan at the end of the month. The soda ash production equipment was overhauled at high temperature, and the inventories of the production enterprises fell for 11 consecutive weeks, pushing up the spot price and effectively supporting the futures market.
In August, the supply of soda ash gradually recovered from the low level of the summer maintenance season; in terms of demand, the demand for photovoltaic glass is doubtful, and public health incidents have aggravated the market’s concerns about the decline in the consumption of daily glass and glass packaging containers. Soda ash’s optimistic expectations for demand have been fully priced, so be wary of the risk of a high market pullback. It is recommended that when the price rises above RMB 2,600, the sales and insurance positions of the 01 contract should be placed on rallies.