SunSirs: Raw Materials Rse First and then Fall, Polyester Staple Fiber Rises and Falls in October

　　1. Price trendIn October, domestic polyester staple fiber prices rose sharply and fell. On October 31, the average domestic spot market price of polyester staple fiber was 8,231 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.10% from the price of 7343 at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 37.48%. In the futures market, the main staple fiber futures (2201) at the end of the month closed at 7276, down 2.36% from the beginning of the month.The main factors affecting the price of domestic polyester staple fiber in October are as follows: First, the cost has rebounded. International crude oil prices this month hit a new high in the past 7 years and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of PTA ethylene glycol, an upstream raw material for short fiber, rebounded slightly; second, the supply fell sharply. In September, the main producing provinces were affected by the dual control of energy consumption and limited power and production. The production of polyester staple fiber equipment was reduced, stopped, and the maintenance increased, and the supply was greatly reduced. This month is still greatly affected, and the resumption of production is slow. Controlling and cracking down on the influence of futures speculation, the industry chain futures market overreacted, and futures fell by a large margin.2. Factors affecting pricesIn October, the domestic PTA price showed a sharp rise and fall. As of October 31, the average domestic spot market price was 5,100 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.60% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 55.22%. In the futures market, the settlement price of the main 2201 PTA futures at the end of the month was 5156 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from the beginning of the month. Crude oil prices this month hit a nearly seven-year high, and PTA cost support has increased. However, due to the recent increase in US crude oil inventories at the end of the month, Iran may resume nuclear negotiations to suppress oil prices. Crude oil prices have fallen, but oil prices generally remain high. This month, the unplanned maintenance of some PTA devices such as Yisheng Dahua, Jiaxing Petrochemical, and Sichuan Energy Investment has eased the pressure of oversupply of PTA. There are not many maintenance plans for PTA devices in the future, and the overall demand side is weak. It is expected that PTA will accumulate inventory. The downstream demand side is generally weak, due to the impact of limited power and production, the start of polyester has not been significantly increased and maintained below 80%.In October, the price of ethylene glycol followed the trend of coal, first rose and then fell sharply. The main reason was that the policy guided the market trend. On October 31, the average blended price of ethylene glycol in North China was 6033 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% from the previous month and an increase of 57.39 year-on-year. In the early stage, coal resources were tight, coupled with the “dual control” triggered market mentality fluctuations, coal prices climbed, ethylene glycol prices also rose with the trend, and gradually deviated from the fundamentals. Since the coal price was suppressed in the later period, the price of ethylene glycol has plunged, and the price has gradually returned to rationality. From a fundamental point of view, the operating rate of ethylene glycol continues to fluctuate at a low level. Although the port inventory is still at a low level but slightly increased, it is expected to increase further in early November. The unloading situation of East China Port improved slightly, and some South China goods flowed to the East China market again. As the profit margin of ethylene glycol shrinks, it is imperative to partially convert the co-production unit to ethylene oxide. At present, the demand side is still weak as a whole, but there is a trend of relaxation of production restrictions. Some polyester plants will be restarted, and the supply and demand structure will be roughly balanced.In October, the domestic pure polyester yarn prices rose slightly and fell back, rising fast and falling slowly. At the end of the month, the prices of polyester staple fibers in the upstream were dragged down by a sharp drop and they were loosened and adjusted slightly. On October 31, the average price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 14,725 yuan/ton, down by 300 yuan/ton from the monthly peak of 15025, up 2.43% from the beginning of the month, and up 11.13% year-on-year. This month, the pure polyester yarn market was weak, and most of them were mainly negotiated. The raw materials fell, pure polyester yarn was preferentially sold, and the inventory accumulated. Downstream weaving companies in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other downstream weaving companies focus on just-needed purchases. Yarn traders and cloth mills have low willingness to stock up, and most small and medium-sized yarn mills maintain high inventories.3. Market outlookIn November, the maintenance equipment for polyester staple fiber may be restarted one after another. Xinfengming’s new production capacity of polyester staple fiber may reach production, and the supply pressure may increase. However, the downstream yarn weaving market in November was affected or reduced by the “dual control”. The capacity of the previous period of electricity production reduction and production suspension may gradually recover. In addition, the traditional Christmas stocking season of the textile and apparel industry is coming, and the demand side may improve. In addition, the price of crude oil is still at a high level. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will rebound in November. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices and changes in coal power control, “dual control”, “dual limit” and other policy changes.