SunSirs: Crude Oil Fell Overnight, Polyester Staple Fiber Weakness has not Changed (Nov.11)

　　Spot price: On November 11, the average domestic spot market price of polyester staple fiber was 7710 yuan/ton, down 2.38% from last Wednesday and up 33.90% year-on-year. The actual transaction in East China was 7250-7500 yuan/ton.

　　Futures market: On November 11, the PF2201 contract futures price closed at 7050, down 1.15% from the previous trading day, and the settlement price was 7112; the trading volume was 142849 lots; the open interest was 123758, with a basis of 660. The domestic polyester industry chain futures closed today with mixed results. The main force of PTA fell 1.99% and the main force of ethylene glycol rose 0.80%.

　　Analysis: On the cost side, EIA data is negative. Overnight US crude oil futures fell sharply, hitting the biggest single-day drop in November. Today (as of now) closed at 81.2; PTA futures fluctuated and closed down today due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and weakening of cost support; The ethylene glycol futures stocks declined due to the overhaul of some devices and the shutdown of technical reforms, and rebounded slightly today; on the demand side, textile terminals were affected by the slowdown of domestic power curtailment policies, and production and sales rebounded. On the supply side, also affected by the slowdown of domestic power curtailment policies, the short-term supply of staple fiber has increased slightly. In addition, the new Fengming Zhonglei staple fiber device may release products next week.

　　Forecast: Looking at the market outlook, the price of polyester staple fiber may still fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the fall in the price of upstream raw materials. However, the absolute price is currently low, and the downward momentum is weakened. Pay close attention to price fluctuations on the cost side and changes in coal and electricity control and dual control policies.